Treasury Yields Move Higher

Published July 18, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields rose midweek as investors reacted to the latest U.S. inflation report reflecting a rise in inflation. Yields continued to rise toward the end of the week as the latest employment data showed the labor market remains resilient.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 0.3% in June, in line with analysts’ expectations. The CPI rose to 2.7% year-over-year, the highest annual rate since February and still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

“Today's inflation report all but dashes any remaining hopes that the Fed may cut interest rates at its meeting later this month,” said U.S. investment analyst at eToro, Bret Kenwell. “However, if subsequent inflation readings reiterate the rise in inflation, it could jeopardize future rate cuts as well.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of July 14 at 4.41% and traded as high as 4.50% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.96% and traded as high as 5.05% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 221,000 for the week ending July 12. This was down 7,000 from the prior week and fell below analysts’ expectations of 232,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 2,000 to 1.96 million.

“Looking through this noise, the data continue to tell a no-hire, no-fire story for the labor market,” said senior economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten.

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 7/14 at 4.42%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.99%.