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Treasury Yields Decline

Published February 27, 2026

Treasury yields fell early in the week as investors digested the latest consumer confidence report as well as the likelihood of new tariffs on imports. Yields decreased at the end of the week as the latest inflation and employment data sent mixed signals on the economy.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.2 points to 91.2 in February. This marked an improvement from January’s revised reading of 89.0 and came in better than economists’ forecast of 87.0. While current concerns related to business and labor markets weighed down sentiment, the overall increase reflected optimism over the future outlook for income, business and employment market conditions.

“Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said chief economist at The Conference Board, Dana M. Peterson. “Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of February 23 at 4.09% and traded as low as 4.01% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.73% and traded as low as 4.66% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 4,000 to 212,000 for the week ending February 21, below economists’ expectations of 215,000. Continuing claims decreased by 31,000 to 1.83 million.

“Surprisingly, the only non-volatile economic metric these days appears to be labor data, which is throwing a curve ball to the bond market and Fed,” said chief investment officer at CrossCheck Management, Todd Schoenberger. “After the recent [nonfarm payrolls] print, it is obvious the labor market is not nearly as fragile as everyone thinks it is.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of February 23 at 3.95% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.62%.